Last month, I said momentum had shifted back in the Republican Party’s favor and that the Republicans would retain the House and Senate. The Republicans were “out of the danger zone.” I still stand by these predictions. Two different events indicate to me that momentum is still slowly shifting away from a Democratic revolution.

Event one was June 11 when Gallup showed Bush’s approval rating moving up to 40%. Republicans seem to be happier with Mr. Bush, with 78% approving of the job he’s doing, as opposed to an average of 68% support among Republicans over the month of May. I have no idea if that actually means anything for the midterm elections, but I believe that in general, the less demoralized the base is, the better the Republicans will do in the elections. Bush has also improved his standing among independents.

And it’s not just gallup: Mystery Pollster says, “online releases by the Fox poll indicates a similar pattern on their surveys: They show the Bush approval rating among Republicans rising from 66% in late April and early May to 79% on their most recent survey in late June.”

The second item I will discuss involves immigration, which I believe helps the Republicans (for the 2006 elections). In a Utah primary, Chris Cannon defeated John Jacob. John Jacob campaigned as an immigration hardliner, but was unable to unseat incumbent Chris Cannon. It looked as if the anti-illegal immigration angle wouldn’t be enough to guarantee victory.

But wait… That’s not the whole story. In the first place, John Jacob was an inexperienced political newcomer who made mistakes early on. Secondly, Cannon campaigned on an anti-illegal immigration platform too!

However, when you put these two bits together, things don’t quite add up. After all, Bush is for the much-maligned “comprehensive” approach. Still, neither trend bodes well for the Democrats in November. The so-called New Direction for America is no Contract with America. They’re going to have to try harder.

EDIT: I still believe the Republicans will most likely lose seats, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to give Democrats control.