Here’s my chance to look like a moron… Prediction: Obama wins Texas.
Uh, Shawn… that’s NOT moronic at all.
I’ve been following the wonderfully byzantine and wacky TX primacaucus situation for weeks now, and I’m convinced. The likelihood of Obama winning there is much higher than what conventional wisdom suggests! Events in the past couple of days have only served to ground this conviction. (Huge early-voting numbers, e.g.)
The new CW really is this: if Obama keeps it close in TX, say within 1% (as the polls have it at the verm moment), then he wins, period. Paradoxically, he could lose the popular vote count there, but win the delegate count by about 10 or so delegates, thanks to the baroque effects of gerrymandering and redistricting. Either way, a campaign-ending result for HRC.
I’m convinced Obama’ll do much better than just keep it close in TX. Want the numbers/analysis? You need look no further than Burnt Orange (which I’ve been religiously following for the last fortnight)… particularly this post:
Ohio? Haven’t really looked closely there yet. I’m giving that to Hillary, but Obama should be within single digits. Again, a result that would be devastating to Clinton. As far as I’m concerned, she should have conceded by now. She and her donors are just wasting money. (Speaking of which, they need to raise quite a bit just to finance the debts they have at present. So maybe that’s why she’s still plugging along doggedly.)