Surprisingly, I’ve been talking to people, and McCain’s selection of Palin has made a huge difference — a big negative effect. I spent a lot of time emphasizing that the VP pick doesn’t really make a difference, so that’s why this was surprising to me. Then again, you don’t expect a campaign to be so scatter-brained as to pick someone they hardly vetted. This is the GOP. They sacrifice the long-term for the short-term. They’d sacrifice their morals if they could win a news-cycle. Sarah Palin was all about winning the news cycle and taking away Obama’s post-convention bounce. It worked, but afterwards, McCain has been tanking in the polls.
Now, I’m not a polling outfit. I only called so many people, and they weren’t exactly randomly selected. However, it was interesting to hear Palin’s name come up unprompted when I asked who they were voting for. She really was a deal-breaker for people who might’ve given McCain more of a chance. One of my friends admires McCain a great deal (ever since 2000), and Sarah Palin was a strong factor in his decision.
Still, if you look at the empirical data, you’ll see that the Palin pick does worry a lot of people. [Note: Find those polls.] [Another note: I will probably not go back and find them.]
I never would’ve guessed that a Vice President would make that much of a difference.
Palin can make someone vote for GOP for sure, as well as totally give up on GOP for sure. In the first case, these voters are pro-life, pro-traditional marriage, and often very religious; in the latter case, these voters are concerned about the stalled Operation Iraqi Freedom, jumpy economy, and whether Senator McCain would live long enough to finish his term. Kids at UC Berkeley love to make fun of Palin, unfortunately. The most widely used excuse for their daily one minute “mocking session” is borrowed from SNL – “I can see Russia from my house.”
My conclusion is that you are absolutely right that a lot of people worry about the VP pick.