Here’s my guess: Obama wins with 375 electoral votes (Kerry states + CO, NM, VA, OH, FL, VA, NC, NV, IN, MO). I figure if Obama takes North Carolina, that’s a bellwether for how the other swing states are going to go. Georgia will go to McCain, there’s no way McCain loses AZ, and I don’t trust the polling in Montana and North Dakota. If Obama doesn’t win North Carolina, I think he’s got a good shot at it. If Georgia is “too close to call,” then we’re in for a landslide. Whatever the margin of victory, I’ll be happy.